Do you work on federal congressional or U.S. Senate campaigns?

No. The firm works exclusively at the state-legislature layer — state house, state senate, ballot measures, and state-level independent expenditures. We do not take federal campaigns.

What does the 30-minute Coalition Diagnostic cover?

A Chris Jones Coalition principal walks through your district baseline, primary and general threat assessment, and ChamberCast forecast against your cycle. You leave with a written one-page scope and a decision on whether to engage the full six-person team.

Is the firm bipartisan, and does it matter which party I am?

Yes. The senior bench is 22 Republican, 19 Democrat, and 4 Independent strategists. Every client is paired with a six-person cross-partisan team, and the firm has defended incumbents of all three affiliations across three full cycles.

What is the verified incumbent retention rate?

94% of incumbent clients on the active roster were retained across the 2018, 2020, and 2022 cycles against both primary and general challengers, verified against the National Institute on Money in Politics post-cycle scorecard.

VOL. XIV · NO. 01ESTABLISHED 2011 · COLUMBUS, OH

The bipartisan operation that rewrote how state legislators win — and keeps winning for the 347 lawmakers who trust us.

A state-legislature-only political practice, built by former leadership staff from both parties, pairing every sitting client with a six-person cross-partisan team. No federal work. No PAC. Just the 7,386 state lawmakers whose decisions set the terms for healthcare, education, taxation, and election integrity.

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Thirty-minute strategy call. No pitch deck. Principal-led. Stipulated confidentiality for sitting members.

Empty chamber floor of a state capitol at dawn, photographed in black and white. — Wire photograph · State Capitol, undated

CHAPTER ONE · WHY A STATE-LEGISLATURE-ONLY FIRM

Washington shops do not know these chambers. We have run them.

State legislatures pass the laws that govern your schools, your hospital systems, your tax base, and the administration of your own elections. They are the most consequential — and most under-served — layer of American politics. The coalition exists because the seven thousand three hundred eighty-six men and women who sit in those chambers deserve a firm that has staffed the leadership offices they now hold.

I.
A read on your chamber before the read on your race.

Every diagnostic opens with a session-by-session audit of your leadership structure, committee assignments, caucus dynamics, and the bills already moving. The strategy follows the institution, not the other way around.
II.
A six-person team that crosses the aisle on purpose.

Twenty-two Republican, nineteen Democrat, four Independent senior strategists, plus former chiefs of staff, floor leaders, and committee chairs from thirty-one legislatures. The bench exists so the advice is operational, not theoretical.
III.
A forecast you can hand to your caucus chair.

ChamberCast has called more than four thousand six hundred state-house races at audited 91.2% accuracy since 2016. We bring the model to the call. You leave with numbers, not adjectives.

EXECUTIVE SCORECARD · AS OF JANUARY 2024

The four numbers that define the firm.

347 Sitting state legislators on the active client roster, across 43 states.

1,142 Coalition-drafted bills signed into law since the 2011 founding.

94% Incumbent retention across the 2018, 2020, and 2022 cycles, primary and general.

91.2% ChamberCast accuracy on 4,600+ state-house race calls since 2016, audited by Marist.

Verified against the National Institute on Money in Politics post-cycle scorecard and the firm's 2023 portfolio audit. — Source: CJC Operations Brief, FY24

THE ANALYTICAL BACKBONE

ChamberCast has called 4,600 state-house races at audited 91.2% accuracy.

ChamberCast is not a consumer product and never will be. It is the proprietary forecasting engine the coalition principals built in 2014 to model district-level fundamentals against caucus behavior, primary dynamics, and the four hundred eleven variables that actually move a state-legislative race. Every forecast the firm issues to a client is generated by ChamberCast, audited annually by Marist's methodology team, and stress-tested against the previous three cycles before it leaves the office.

The model is the reason a thirty-minute diagnostic can end with a defensible read on your cycle: not a hunch, not a partisan tilt, but a number a caucus chair can carry into a closed-door briefing.

4,600+state-house race calls since 2016
91.2%audited accuracy, primary and general
+8.4 ptsaverage vote-share lift vs. non-client peers (2014–2022)

Read the Methodology Note

A campaign strategy office table covered with precinct maps and hand-drawn district lines, photographed in black and white. — The chamber desk · coalition war room, 2022 cycle

CHAPTER TWO · THE CROSS-PARTISAN BENCH

A six-person team for every client — staffed by people who have run the chambers they now consult for.

Coalition principals have served as chiefs of staff, floor leaders, and committee chairs in thirty-one different state legislatures. The bench is built on purpose. Every client team is staffed to reflect the chamber it serves, not the donor class of a national party.

Republican strategists

22 senior strategists

Former leadership staff and executive directors in GOP caucuses from Ohio to Florida to Texas. They have run majority operations, not just campaigns.

Democratic strategists

19 senior strategists

Former chiefs, floor directors, and committee counsel in Democratic caucuses across the Midwest, the Pacific, and the Northeast. Operational fluency, not talking points.

Independent advisors

4 senior strategists

Independent and third-caucus veterans, including former speakers pro tempore and minority floor leaders who served outside the two-party structure.

Former legislative staff

29 former staffers

Ex-employees of leadership offices, committee staff, and chamber admin across thirty-one legislatures. They know the parliamentarian's office by first name.

Meet the Bench

CHAPTER THREE · REDACTED FROM THE CASE LOG

Three entries from the file drawer — the kind of work the diagnostic will scope for you.

Client identities are stripped to chamber and cycle. Patterns are what matter. If your race looks like one of these, the diagnostic will go fast.

Defending a freshman senator against a primary challenge from the right.

Challenge: Self-funded primary opponent, $480K personal loan, county-party endorsement fight
Engagement: Eight-month diagnostic, caucus-mapping, and primary turnout model via ChamberCast
Outcome: Incumbent held with 54.1% of the primary vote; went on to win the general unopposed

Expanding a two-seat minority into a working coalition without losing a single incumbent.

Challenge: Three open seats, a retiring speaker, and a redrawn map that compressed three districts into one competitive one
Engagement: Twelve-month cycle plan, six-person bench team, district-by-district bill-signing scorecard
Outcome: Coalition held all three seats; secured committee gavel in two chambers for the first time in a decade

Re-electing an Independent caucusing with the majority through a four-way general.

Challenge: Two major-party opponents, a minor-party third line, and a $1.1M outside spending attack
Engagement: Diagnostic in week one, ChamberCast general-turnout model, caucus-floor coalition memo
Outcome: Incumbent took 38.7% in a four-way race; retained committee chairs and the majority whip count

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